Data provided by the Hawaii Information Service MLS from a comparable search run September 19, 2026, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Search parameters: residential, fee simple, 3 or more bedrooms, $2.5 million to $4.5 million, TMK zones 3-7-5 through 3-7-9. Reporting window: January 1 through September 19, 2026. All figures are subject to change. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an appraisal or investment, legal, or financial advice.
The most useful number for a Seller is not always the highest recorded sale or the current asking price of a nearby home. In the 2026 Kailua-Kona and Holualoa luxury market, the relationship between list price and final sale price gives a clearer picture of how Buyers are responding.
Among the five closed sales from $3.5 million to $4.5 million, the median sale-to-list ratio was 88.6%. In the $2.5 million to $3.49 million tier, the median was 95.1% across nine sales.
That difference is meaningful. It suggests that Buyers above $3.5 million have secured a larger negotiation margin, while properties in the lower tier have generally closed nearer to asking price.
The result does not mean every Seller above $3.5 million should simply reduce a planned list price by a fixed percentage. It does mean that pricing, presentation, and the quality of the comparable set deserve close attention before a home reaches the market.
The negotiation gap is supported by days-on-market data. Homes from $3.5 million to $4.5 million spent an average of 131 days on market and a median of 68 days before selling. In the lower tier, the average was 67 days and the median was 50.
The median is the cleaner measure here because a small number of long or short listings can move the average substantially. Even so, both measures point in the same direction: higher-priced homes have required a longer runway.
There are currently seven active listings above $3.5 million, one contingent property, and five closed sales since January 1. Based on closed sales, that tier has about 12 months of supply. Including the contingent sale brings the estimate to 10 months. A Seller in this range should expect competition and should prepare for a process that may extend over several months.
One home in the upper tier, 75-667 Pu Hoaloha Place, sold at 102.4% of list price after just two days on market. Another, 75-5521 Kona Bay Drive, sold at 72.4% of list after 153 days.
Both sales are real, but neither should be treated as the template for every property. In a small luxury segment, an unusual result can change an average quickly. The relevant question is why a specific home performed as it did, including its initial price, condition, setting, improvements, timing, and competition.
The Pu Hoaloha result shows that a distinctive property can still draw an immediate response. The Kona Bay result shows the cost of assuming that time alone will bring an offer near the original asking price. Sellers benefit from understanding the difference before choosing a launch strategy.
The five upper-tier sales recorded a median building price of $1,277 per square foot, compared with $997 per square foot in the lower tier. Buyers paid more per square foot for the larger or more finished properties represented in the higher range.
At the same time, those Buyers negotiated a larger overall discount from list price. That combination is not contradictory. It shows that Buyers will recognize quality while still testing whether the total asking price reflects the current market.
Price per square foot can help frame a comparison, but it cannot account fully for differences in land, view, privacy, construction, renovation quality, layout, or location. Those details are especially important in Kailua-Kona and Holualoa, where two homes at similar prices may offer very different settings and ownership considerations.
For a Seller above $3.5 million, the current data supports four practical steps.
First, begin with the strongest comparable sales rather than the most ambitious active listings. Active prices show the competition. Closed prices show what Buyers accepted.
Second, account for the present supply. With 10 to 12 months of inventory in the upper tier, Buyers can consider multiple options. The launch price needs to make sense beside those alternatives.
Third, decide in advance how the strategy will respond if the market does not engage. A plan for showing feedback, online activity, offer patterns, and review dates is more useful than waiting for an arbitrary number of days.
Fourth, leave room for negotiation without relying on an inflated list price. The median 88.6% sale-to-list ratio reflects recent outcomes, but an accurately priced home may avoid part of the prolonged sit-and-chase pattern visible in some sales.
None of this calls for treating a home as a number on a spreadsheet. A residence represents years of care and personal history. The goal of the data is to support a clear decision, not to replace the property’s individual story.
Buyers considering homes above $3.5 million can take useful guidance from the same figures. The broader market offers choice and, in many cases, room to negotiate. But the two-day sale above list is a reminder that a strong property can move well ahead of the segment’s median pace.
Preparation still matters. A Buyer who understands the comparable sales, has financing or proof of funds ready, and knows which property characteristics matter most can negotiate from evidence without assuming that every Seller has the same priorities.
Marco A. Silva works with Buyers and Sellers across the Kona luxury market. Explore current properties at marcoinkona.com/active or contact Marco for a property-specific review of value, competition, and recent market activity.
What is the average discount on Kona luxury homes above $3.5 million?
The five closed sales from $3.5 million to $4.5 million had an average sale-to-list ratio of 88.7% and a median of 88.6%. Results ranged from 72.4% to 102.4% of list price.
How long are homes above $3.5 million taking to sell?
The median was 68 days on market, and the average was 131 days, based on five sales from January 1 through September 19, 2026.
How much inventory is available from $3.5 million to $4.5 million?
The comparable search found seven active homes, one contingent listing, and five year-to-date sales. That equals roughly 10 to 12 months of supply, depending on whether the contingent sale is included.
Does a higher price per square foot mean a home will sell closer to asking?
Not necessarily. The upper tier had a higher median building price per square foot, at $1,277, while also recording a lower median sale-to-list ratio of 88.6%. Buyers may recognize quality and still negotiate the total price.
Should a Seller list high to leave room for negotiation?
The data supports leaving reasonable room for negotiation, but it also shows that extended market time can accompany a wider gap between list and sale price. The right strategy depends on the home’s comparable sales, competition, condition, and the Seller’s timing.
How can I get a pricing review for my Kona or Holualoa home?
Contact Marco A. Silva through marcoinkona.com/contact for a current analysis based on the property’s specific location, features, and competitive set.
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