Data provided by the Hawaii Information Service MLS from a comparable search run September 19, 2026, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Search parameters: residential, fee simple, 3 or more bedrooms, $2.5 million to $4.5 million, TMK zones 3-7-5 through 3-7-9. Reporting window: January 1 through September 19, 2026. All figures are subject to change. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an appraisal or investment, legal, or financial advice.
There are 21 active homes in the $2.5 million to $4.5 million range across the Kailua-Kona and Holualoa search area. Fourteen homes in the same segment sold between January 1 and September 19, and another two were contingent when the search was run.
Those counts are useful, but they do not tell the full story. The more important measure is months of supply: how long it would take the current inventory to sell at the recent pace if no additional homes came to market.
Using closed sales only, this segment has approximately 12.9 months of supply. When the two contingent properties are included as a more current measure of demand, the figure is approximately 11.3 months.
Either calculation places the market well above the six-month level generally associated with a balanced market. In practical terms, Buyers have choices, and Sellers are competing for a limited number of qualified purchasers.
The 21 active listings range from $2.5 million to $4.3 million, with a median asking price of $3.15 million. The two contingent listings were priced between $3.25 million and $4.495 million. The 14 homes sold year to date had a median original list price of $3,098,500.
The similarities among those median figures are worth noting. Current Sellers are not entering a market with asking prices dramatically different from the homes that have sold. The larger issue is pace. At roughly 1.6 closed sales per month, or 1.9 per month when contingent activity is included, there is enough inventory to give Buyers room to compare properties carefully.
That makes a clear pricing strategy at launch especially important. A home can be well located, thoughtfully designed, and well presented, but it is still being measured against 21 active listings across the same broad price band.
Splitting the market at $3.5 million shows that neither half of the segment has a clear speed advantage.
From $2.5 million to $3.49 million, 14 homes were active, one was contingent, and nine had sold year to date. That represents approximately 13.4 months of supply based on closed sales alone, or 12 months when the contingent sale is included.
From $3.5 million to $4.5 million, seven homes were active, one was contingent, and five had sold. That equals approximately 12 months of supply based on closed sales, or 10 months including the contingent property.
The higher tier appears slightly faster when pending activity is counted, but the sample is small. One transaction can change the calculation noticeably. The more useful conclusion is that both tiers are operating with about 10 to 13 months of supply.
For Sellers, the current conditions place a premium on accuracy. Testing a price at the top of the range can create a longer marketing period and may lead to later reductions, particularly when Buyers have many alternatives.
The lower tier has been more consistent in its negotiation pattern. Homes from $2.5 million to $3.49 million sold at a median 95.1% of list price, with a median of 50 days on market. Most transactions in this range have landed within about 5% of list.
Above $3.5 million, the median sale-to-list ratio was 88.6%, and the median time on market rose to 68 days. One exceptional property closed at 102.4% of list in two days, but another sold at 72.4% of list after 153 days. Those results show how much the individual property and its original pricing can shape the outcome in a market with relatively few sales.
A Seller does not need to assume that every home will follow the average. The stronger approach is to understand which comparable sales are truly relevant, price with the current competition in mind, and plan for a marketing and negotiation period measured in months rather than weeks.
For Buyers, the inventory level creates time to compare homes and evaluate value, but it does not make every property interchangeable. The strongest homes can still move quickly, as the two-day sale above list demonstrates.
The broader data does support a careful negotiation strategy. This is especially true above $3.5 million, where the median sale-to-list ratio points to more room between asking price and final price than in the lower tier. Property condition, location, improvements, view, and the Seller’s circumstances still matter, so the market average should be a starting point rather than a formula.
Marco A. Silva can provide a property-specific review of the current competition, recent comparable sales, and the factors that may affect a Buyer’s or Seller’s position. Explore active properties at marcoinkona.com/active or contact Marco directly for a current market conversation.
How many luxury homes are currently for sale in the Kailua-Kona and Holualoa market?
The September 19, 2026 comparable search found 21 active residential listings from $2.5 million to $4.5 million, with three or more bedrooms, across TMK zones 3-7-5 through 3-7-9.
How many homes in this segment have sold in 2026?
Fourteen homes sold between January 1 and September 19, 2026. Two additional listings were contingent when the search was run.
Is the $2.5 million to $4.5 million Kona market favoring Buyers or Sellers?
The segment had approximately 11.3 to 12.9 months of supply, depending on whether contingent sales are included. That is above the six-month level generally associated with a balanced market and indicates conditions that currently favor Buyers.
Are homes above $3.5 million selling more slowly?
The median sold home above $3.5 million spent 68 days on market, compared with 50 days for homes from $2.5 million to $3.49 million. The sample is modest, so each property’s pricing and characteristics remain important.
How much are Kona luxury homes selling below list price?
Homes from $2.5 million to $3.49 million sold at a median 95.1% of list price. Homes from $3.5 million to $4.5 million sold at a median 88.6% of list price. Individual outcomes varied considerably.
Where can I discuss a specific Kailua-Kona or Holualoa property?
Contact Marco A. Silva through marcoinkona.com/contact for a review based on the property’s location, features, competition, and current comparable sales.
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